sharp decline in business confidence has led ASB to formally join the economists predicting three more OCR cuts by the end of the year.
 
In the latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, which came out this morning, business confidence fell to the lowest level since September 2012.
NZIER senior economist Christina Leung said the results of the survey showed the New Zealand economy was losing momentum.
The drop in activity indicators in the June 2015 quarter pointed to annual growth remaining below 3% over the coming year, she said.
This was a marked drop from the 3.5% annual growth seen at the end of last year.

Leung said the results suggested further interest rate cuts would be on the cards in the remainder of 2015.“It appears businesses have now moderated their activity expectations to be more consistent with the softening demand environment. So expectations have fallen – but from lofty levels.”
The sharp decline of business confidence over the second quarter of 2015 has led ASB to confirm its earlier, tentative prediction of three further OCR cuts this year.
ASB senior economist Jane Turner said the fall in business confidence, along with weak inflation indicators, should prompt further rate cuts from the Reserve Bank.

商业信心下降导致OCR下降
从NZIER第一季度的调查结果显示，商业信心指数已经下降到2012年9月以来的最低水平。 NZIER高级经济学家克里斯蒂娜梁说，从这份调查结果中可以明显的观察出新西兰经济正在丢失势头，它也暗示出在未来一年内，经济增长的速度将低于3%，这个数据也低于去年预测的3.5%的年增长率。
商业信心指数的急剧下降，导致ASB的经济学家也正式加入预测今年你年底会有第三次OCR削减的行列中。ASB高级经济学家简·特纳表示: 随着秋季的商业信心的下降，通胀疲软的指标，储备银行应及时进一步的降息。现在的新西兰市场，有着进一步恶化趋势。因此ASB预测在未来将会出现进一步的消减势头，大约会在9月继续下降25%，这将使OCR处于2.5%的低位。但是Truner表示，低利率与较低的汇率将会有助于新西兰在2016年提振经济。
TFS温馨提醒大家，伴随着OCR的下降，银行利息的下降，这使投资者不仅会降低初期投资成本而且会有较高的回报率。不止这些，银行的贷款利率也随着利息的下调而大幅下降。尽管银行利润下降的问题，导致银行可能减少福利的发放，或者提高首付款金额。但总体来说，这是个绝佳的机会。此外，尽管固定利率已经大幅下降，你仍然可以在买房的时候依然可以通过贷款经纪人同银行“砍价”。从中获取比广告上更低的利率，但是这种大幅度的砍价是要满足一定的贷款条件的。至于利息应该锁定多长时间，取决于贷款人的个人状况以及他是否有固定预算，或是否关注汇率的周期性变化。
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