What the Reserve Bank said about interest rates
The Reserve Bank has reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2%.
Global growth is below trend despite being supported by unprecedented levels of monetary stimulus.  Significant surplus capacity remains across many economies and, along with low commodity prices, is suppressing global inflation.  Some central banks have eased policy further since the June Monetary Policy Statement, and long-term interest rates are at record lows.  The prospects for global growth and commodity prices remain uncertain.  Political risks are also heightened.
Weak global conditions and low interest rates relative to New Zealand are placing upward pressure on the New Zealand dollar exchange rate.  The trade-weighted exchange rate is significantly higher than assumed in the June Statement. The high exchange rate is adding further pressure to the export and import-competing sectors and, together with low global inflation, is causing negative inflation in the tradables sector.  This makes it difficult for the Bank to meet its inflation objective.  A decline in the exchange rate is needed.
Domestic growth is expected to remain supported by strong inward migration, construction activity, tourism, and accommodative monetary policy.  However, low dairy prices are depressing incomes in the dairy sector and reducing farm spending and investment.  High net immigration is supporting strong growth in labour supply and limiting wage pressure.
House price inflation remains excessive and has become more broad-based across the regions, adding to concerns about financial stability.  The Bank is consulting on stronger macro-prudential measures that should help to mitigate financial system risks arising from the rapid escalation in house prices.
Headline inflation is being held below the target band by continuing negative tradables inflation.  Annual CPI inflation is expected to weaken in the September quarter, reflecting lower fuel prices and cuts in ACC levies. Annual inflation is expected to rise from the December quarter, reflecting the policy stimulus to date, the strength of the domestic economy, reduced drag from tradables inflation, and rising non-tradables inflation.  Although long-term inflation expectations are well-anchored at 2%, the sustained weakness in headline inflation risks further declines in inflation expectations.
Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative.  Our current projections and assumptions indicate that further policy easing will be required to ensure that future inflation settles near the middle of the target range.  We will continue to watch closely the emerging economic data.
（Source from http://tmmonline.nz/article/976504530/what-the-reserve-bank-said-about-interest-rates?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=OCR+cut+to+2%25%3B+Here%27s+what+they+said）
 
OCR下调，你准备好了吗？
引言：就在本周，官方现金利率（OCR）是否会如绝大多数人们预期地下调，将最终揭晓。新西兰央行行长Graeme Wheeler预计宣布至少削减 25个基点。甚至有人预测不排除下调50个基点达到历史新低的可能。那么究竟下调OCR之后又会给新西兰房市带来怎么样的影响？TFS带您来细细分析。
前期准备：新LVR限制降低银行借贷风险
自从上个月底央行的新LVR限制出台，Westpac、ANZ、ASB银行等纷纷立即更改其银行政策。于是关于房产市场未来走向就变得众说纷纭。想要更准确展望未来房产市场的走向，还要追究新LVR限制的主要目的：降低银行高借贷风险。
Christian Hawkesby，来自arbour Asset Management’s head of fixed interest and economics的分析师认为央行希望可通过LVR限制，来控制更多投资者参与房产市场的竞争。蓬勃向上的房产市场在不断提高房价的同时，也给银行带来了很高的借贷风险。在调整LVR之前，最高80%的贷款申请门槛，让银行2016年以来流失“大批量”存款。这其中很大一部分都用于支付房产的首付。这样就使得银行在贷款买房的过程中承担了最大的风险。想要降低银行风险，提高贷款投资的门槛，才是新LVR限制的最终目的。 
降息过后，银行将“惠利”消费者
在本周一例行的媒体会上，新西兰总理John Key表示：尽管有其它因素诸如海外借贷成本的影响。但各银行如果可能的话，在央行降息之后，银行成本同步降低的情况，还是应该透过调整贷款利率还利于民。同时他还表示，目前银行贷款利率已经处于十分低的水平，再下调贷款利率也不至于对整体房市造成特别巨大的负面影响。John Key的发言似乎让更多想要购房的民众看到了，银行下调房贷利率的希望。而房市的变化不仅仅依靠贷款利率的变化。
展望未来房市，可能进入“平静期”
2016年的新西兰房市可谓是“精彩纷呈”“蒸蒸日上”来描述。不过近期ASB银行表示，在2016年夏季来临的时候，房市将可能会进入“平静期”。ASB首席经济学家Nick  Tuffley表示：央行最新针对投资者LVR限制旨在控制房市目前火热的情况，使之逐渐降温，以方便央行可以妥善平稳降息，而不刺激房市继续增长。新西兰国内通货膨胀率已经很长一段时间未曾突破1%。央行为了提升市场通胀率，刺激国内经济进一步增长，现阶段最及时有效的手段就是调整官方现金率（OCR）。此外，他也强调了房产市场还存在亟待解决的问题：供不应求。这也是房价在逐渐攀升的主要因素之一。想要让新建房产的速度跟上房产需求速度，短时间内还无法实现。怎么平衡房市未来供需将会是央行和政府需要攻克的问题。
从上一次（2016年3月），调整了OCR之后，带来了房产一系列影响的经验来看。一味单纯下调OCR的结果，就是银行利率下调幅度过大，促使大量新房产借贷产生，进而市场房价也被推动到更高的水平。所以此次新LVR的出台，Tuffley的解读是限制了目前购房需求量的同时，更提供给了央行下调OCR更多的空间。总而言之，新LVR限制出台结合下调OCR，给足了其它行业的增长机会，也限制房产市场需求量，所以他预测之前房市成几何增长的情况将会在2016年年末，2017年年初趋于平静。
本文由TFS金融顾问周宁提供，查看更多文章请登陆TFS公司的Facebook https://www.facebook.com/totalfinancialsolutionswellington” 我们提供专业的房屋贷款服务，十年以上的房屋贷款经验，用心为您解决房屋贷款的问题