(from FairFax Media, 10/03/2014)
 
The Reserve Bank may lift official interest rates as much as five times this year, with the first move kicking off on Thursday, according to a Westpac forecast.
 
Central bank governor Graeme Wheeler is widely expected to lift the official cash rate from 2.5 per cent to 2.75 per cent this week.
 
That will make the Reserve Bank the first developed world central bank to lift interest rates this time round, though economists say that is already factored into the high New Zealand dollar.
 
Floating mortgage rates are now about 5.75 per cent, so borrowers could face rates approaching 8 per cent in a couple of years.
 
Two and three year fixed rates have already moved up in the last couple of months to around 6.3 per cent and 6.6 per cent respectively.
 
A large proportion of people are on floating or short-term mortgages, but the tide has started turning as more borrowers look for fixed term rates, to shelter from expected rate rises.
 
ASB Bank said a 25 basis point rise was "as close to a certainty" as you get in forecasting, though further rate rises were likely to be fairly gradual, with pauses along the way. There may be no commitment to raise rates again in April, but it was likely, ASB said.
 
Official interest rates have been at extreme lows of just 2.5 per cent since early 2009, aside from a small lift in 2010, reversed in early 2011. That has seen mortgage rates at their lowest levels for about 50 years, in the wake of the global financial crisis.
 
Westpac says this week will be the start of the journey back to more normal interest rates "after several years of economic underperformance, false starts and major setbacks".
 
Westpac expects a series of rate rises over coming years to head off inflation pressures created by a growing economy and the Canterbury rebuild.
 
The Reserve Bank is expected to make it clear that it will follow up with more rate rises after this week's move, Westpac said. Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said they expected rates to rise 125 basis points this year.
 
Bank of New Zealand expected economic growth of just more than 4 per cent this year and 3.5 per cent next year- with 2015 much stronger than earlier expected, reflecting the big gains in net migration and consumer spending.
 
In December, the Reserve Bank signalled interest rates would rise 200 basis points to 4.5 per cent by the end of 2015.
 
This week's statement will show if that assumption is repeated or even more rate rises are in prospect, given super-high business confidence and strong commodity export prices.
 
 
预计本年度利息将连升5次
根据Westpac 的预测，新西兰储备银行（Reserve Bank of New Zealand）今年可能会提高Official Cash Rate (OCR) ，升息频率甚至可能达到五次，这个措施预期最快将会于本星期四开始实行。
 
RBNZ总裁Graeme Wheeler认为在这星期将OCR由2.5%升至2.75%。
 
RBNZ 将会是这次一众已发展国家中首个提高利率的国家，而经济学家们都认为最近不断升值的新西兰元已经在反映这情况。
 
目前的浮动按揭利率是大概5.75%，所以贷款人在未来的数年有可能面对接近8%的利率。
 
在过去的数个月里，两年或三年的固定利率已经分别升至6.3%和6.6%。
 
一直以来大部份人都是选择浮动或者短期按揭，但最近的趋势却是贷款人都选择固定利率，以免受到持续上升的利率影响。
 
ASB银行认为在预测中出现25%个基点的上升是几乎可肯定的，而之后利率亦会在波动的情况下逐渐上升。 ASB表示四月份时利率还是有上调的可能。
 
早于2009年初，OCR都是在极低的2.5%，在2010年时曾经出现细小的升幅，但在2011年初已经回落。受到全球的金融危机影响，按揭利率都是50年之中最低的。
 
Westpac 认为在经过数年的经济不景气后，利率将会在这个星期回复到以前较为正常的位置。
 
Westpac 预期经济发展和基督城震后重建所带来的通胀压力都会因为一系列的利率上涨而有所舒缓。
 
Westpac 表示RBNZ 将会明确地出现更加多利率上涨的举动，今年的升幅预期为1.25%个基点,达到3.75%。
 
BNZ 预期，受惠于新移民和消费的激增，今年的经济增长将会超过4%，而2015年亦会有比预期多的3.5%增长。
 
在去年12月，RBNZ预示在2016年前利率将会上升200个基点，达到4.5%。
 
总之现在极为好的投资信心和强劲的出口价格都导致利率存在上调的空间，问题只在于上调的次数和幅度。
 
所以我们最近一直帮助我们的客人重组贷款结构，即可保持还款的灵活性，又可减低升息带来的风险。